Friday 11 September 2015

Marshall Horn - How Russia Hopes to Repatriate Lost Scientific Talent

Marshall Horn,

This article originally appeared in The Moscow Times


Skoltech is just one part of a larger project known as the Skolkovo Foundation, launched in 2010 by then-President Dmitry Medvedev as part of his initiatives to modernize Russia's oil- and gas-dependent economy.

Four years after the Skolkovo Institute of Science and Technology (Skoltech) was founded, the startup university has finally moved into its own purpose-built campus, and has succeeded in luring accomplished Russian diaspora scientists back to Russia after periods of up to 20 years abroad.

Some of them say they have returned for love of the country they left behind, and an opportunity to shape its scientific and technological future. They have also been enticed by the goals of the Skolkovo project, which are nothing less than to create a Silicon Valley-type ecosystem in a quiet Moscow suburb.

One of the most prominent scientists to be lured back to Russia by the Skoltech project is Artyom Oganov, who specializes in computational materials discovery, which he describes as “a revolutionary field promising major technological innovations and discoveries in materials science.”

Oganov’s story is a classic example of Russia’s scientific diaspora. After receiving his master’s degree from the prestigious Moscow State University, he left Russia for University College London in 1998 “because at that time there was no future in science, no prospects, no possibilities to work on the cutting edge of modern science,” he told The Moscow Times.

After 16 years, Oganov is back to teach and conduct research at Skoltech. Asked why he returned after so many years, Oganov said he “wanted to try this opportunity to work in my own country.

“Now science is again a major priority in Russia, science again attracts the best students, there is state of the art equipment and a desire to excel in science and technology. It is a very interesting time here,” he said.

Russia’s Silicon Valley

Skoltech is just one part of a larger project known as the Skolkovo Foundation, launched in 2010 by then-President Dmitry Medvedev as part of his initiatives to modernize Russia’s oil- and gas-dependent economy.

In an interview (page 5) with The Moscow Times at the new campus, Skoltech president Edward Crawley explained the university’s mission as an educational and research hub designed to infuse the ailing Russian economy with cutting-edge science and technology.

“Skoltech isn’t just a new university, it’s a different kind of university, one where the three acknowledged missions of all universities are present: teaching, research and innovation and industrial development. But here the latter role is the primary mission,” Crawley said.

Read the Full Interview: 4 Years of Innovation: An Interview With Skoltech President Edward Crawley

The institute was launched from humble beginnings in 2011 as something of a virtual university hosted by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in partnership with the Skolkovo project.

Four years on, Skoltech has grown from a small program with 20 students and a handful of dedicated professors to a university boasting some 60 professors and a few hundred students.

While Crawley estimates that 20 to 25 percent of the institute’s faculty are foreign like him, the remaining 75 to 80 percent of the faculty are Russian-born scientists, he said.

“Fifteen to 20 percent of the faculty were hired in Russia, and the remaining 60 percent are diaspora who have returned. So we really have attracted a significant slice of the faculty back to Russia,” Crawley said.

Reverse Brain Drain

Russia’s scientific diaspora numbers several thousands, Crawley estimates. This leaves Skoltech with a large pool of talent to recruit from, but also begs the question of how many of these Russian scientists are even interested in returning to their native country after establishing themselves abroad — often in the United States and Western Europe.

Skoltech has worked since 2011 with the Russian-American Science Association (RASA) to increase interaction between Russian diaspora scientists and the community they left behind. Crawley said he is scheduled to speak at RASA’s annual conference in early November.

According to the U.S. professor, there are two types of Russian diaspora scientists: those who for various reasons are not looking back, and those that are interested in the possibility of returning, and Skoltech is actively recruiting from the latter category.

The halls of the newly christened Skoltech campus are now home to Russian scientists who have in the last few years accepted offers from the institute to return to their country of origin to help work on the engine of innovation.

“I came back to my home country about a year ago to build a new kind of university,” said Albert Nasibulin, who received his Ph.D. in physical chemistry from Kemerovo State University in Siberia in 1996, but left for Finland in 1999 and spent 15 years there, most of it at Aalto University.

Nasibulin, who cofounded a company in Finland specializing in commercializing carbon nanotubes, said he was enticed to come to Skoltech by its mission “to promote the commercialization of scientific results,” he told The Moscow Times.

“Another reason to return to my home country was to teach my children Russian culture,” he said, adding that they are able to speak perfect Russian, but were born abroad and “can hardly be treated as Russians.”

Knowledge Application

Vasili Perebeinos left Russia for the U.S. in 1997 to complete his Ph.D. in physics, after which he worked on advanced materials and nanostructures for electronics at IBM’s T.J. Watson Research center.

Asked why he left his career at IBM behind, Perebeinos said that Skoltech was a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity “to actually apply the knowledge I acquired abroad and influence how it is applied in the future.”

Dzmitry Tsetserukou, head of Skoltech’s Intelligent Space Robotics Laboratory, studied robotic technologies at the Belarussian-Russian University in Mogilyov, Belarus, but followed his mentors abroad to France and Japan, where he spent 10 years.

“In Japan I made a successful career and highly appreciate the time I spent there, but it is time to bring my expertise to a country that needs it more, there are a lot of opportunities to develop and apply new technology here in Russia. This is my new challenge,” said Tsetserukou.

Philipp Khaitovich, a Moscow State University-trained biologist who left Russia 20 years ago to do his Ph.D. in the United States, echoed Tsetserukou’s words, saying he decided to come to Skoltech “to use my experience to help build up a strong modern research and education base in Russia.

“I also missed Russian food,” he added.

 



via Marshall Horn, CFTC How Russia Hopes to Repatriate Lost Scientific Talent

Thursday 10 September 2015

Marshall Horn - German Corporate Titans Forge Ahead With Major Russia Investments

Marshall Horn,

This article originally appeared in The Moscow Times


Major German retailer Globus Group, which owns the Globus hypermarket chain in Russia, has leased a 45,000-square-meter plot at an industrial park in the Moscow region.

The company will use the warehouse space at the Kholmogory industrial park as a distribution center, according to real estate firm Jones Lang LaSalle (JLL) which advised Globus on the deal.

It is a record-setting deal for an international grocery retailer on the Russian warehousing market, Pyotr Zaritsky, head of the warehouse and industrial department at JLL, said in a statement last week.

The value of the deal remains confidential, JLL said.

Globus has operated on the Russian market since 2006 and has 10 hypermarkets in Russia. The company plans to open its largest outlet yet in the town of Pushkino in the Moscow region this year.

The Kholmogory industrial park is located 30 kilometers outside Moscow. The total area of the complex is 250,000 square meters.

According to industry analysts polled by the Vedomosti business daily, the 45,000-square-meter lease is the largest deal on the warehouse property market involving a foreign company in two years.

The absolute record belongs to Swedish furniture giant IKEA, which in 2013 leased 71,800 square meters in the Moscow region logistics park Logopark Sever, according to Vedomosti.

A year earlier, German sportswear retailer Adidas leased 65,000 square meters in warehouse complex PNK Chekhov-2 in the Moscow region, Vedomosti reported.

In the first eight months of 2015, eight out of 45 warehouse lease deals in the Moscow region involved foreign companies. In total they rented about 103,000 square meters out of the 460,000 square meters of warehouse space rented out, Vedomosti reported, citing Vyacheslav Kholopov, director for office and warehouse property at real estate consultancy Knight Frank.


This article originally appeared in The Moscow Times. Click here for the Reuters report


Volkswagen AG started production at a newly built engine plant in Russia on Friday, aiming to cement its position in a market which it sees as offering long-term potential despite its recent contraction.

Sited next to Volkswagen's vehicle plant in Russia's car-manufacturing centre Kaluga, 150km south of Moscow, the factory has the capacity to produce 150,000 engines a year. It will make engines for the Polo and Skoda Rapid models that are assembled in Kaluga and will later service the Volkswagen Jetta, Skoda Oktavia and Skoda Yeti models.

“We need to continue and strengthen our partnership (in Russia) despite the current situation,” said Volkswagen board member Thomas Schmall. “We are doing everything in our power to strengthen our market position in the long term.”

After a decade of annual sales growth in excess of 10 percent, the Russian car industry has been hit hard by an economic crisis caused by lower oil prices and Western sanctions over Moscow's actions in Ukraine.

Domestic car sales have halved from their peaks in 2012-2013, when during some months the country ranked ahead of Germany as Europe's largest car market by sales, and eighth biggest in the world. It now ranks only fifth in Europe and 12th globally.

Russia has sought commitments from foreign carmakers to boost local production and wants 60 percent of manufacturing costs spent domestically by 2020. In return, producers enjoy lower import duties on car components.

Volkswagen announced plans in 2012 to spend around 250 million euros on the engine plant, in line with Russian government targets to equip at least 30 percent of vehicles produced in Russia with locally-made engines by 2016.

Russian sales of the VW brand fell 44 percent year-on-year in the first seven months of this year and the company in March cut jobs and working hours at the Kaluga factory. But it says its investment plans are intact due to the market's longer-term prospects.

Ford Motor Co's Russian venture, Ford Sollers, also opened a $275 million engine plant in Russia this week. General Motors Co, by contrast, quit the market in March, winding up its Opel brand there and shutting its plant in St Petersburg.



via Marshall Horn, CFTC German Corporate Titans Forge Ahead With Major Russia Investments

Wednesday 9 September 2015

Marshall Horn - Russia and China to Launch Huge $10 Billion Agribusiness Fund

Marshall Horn,

VLADIVOSTOK, September 3 (Sputnik) — Russia and China plan to create a Russian-Chinese Far East Agribusiness Development Fund, signing a memorandum of understanding to this end on Thursday.

The ministry's press service told Sputnik that the fund will have a total capital of $10 billion. A number of financial institutions, including Russia's Sberbank, will participate in its operations.

The ministry added that the fund's goal is to stimulate the production of 10 million tons of grain and agricultural products annually, starting from 2020.

According to the document, the sides agreed to cooperate on joint investment projects in the Russian territories of priority development, nine of which are located in Russia's Far Eastern Federal District. These projects encompass investments in agribusiness, grain growing, processing, storage and logistics as well as the construction and operation of agribusiness infrastructure.

The first EEF is being held in the Russian city of Vladivostok on September 3-5, as a platform for dialogue between international investors, the Russian government and countries of the Asia-Pacific Region.

Some 72 agreements of intent and memorandums of cooperation are expected to be signed during the three-day-event, including 10 on the development of agribusiness.



via Marshall Horn, CFTC Russia and China to Launch Huge $10 Billion Agribusiness Fund

Marshall Horn - Russia Close to Deal to Build Pakistan Pipeline

Marshall Horn,

MOSCOW, September 9 (Sputnik) — Russia and Pakistan could sign an agreement on the North-South gas pipeline project in late September, Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said Friday.

In December 2014, RT Global Resources, a subsidiary of Russia's state technologies corporation Rostec, and the Pakistani Inter State Gas System (ISGS) announced a project to build oil and gas infrastructure in Pakistan.

The project includes the construction of liquefied natural gas terminals as well as the 683-mile North-South pipeline, stretching from southern Pakistan's Karachi to Lahore in the country's northeast.


For more context see this story from Russia & India Report from August:

A subsidiary of the Russian state corporation Rostech has offered to build a pipeline that will carry gas from Iran to cities in Pakistan. The project is estimated to cost $2.5 billion dollars. The pipeline will extend almost 1100 kms from Karachi, in southern Pakistan, to Lahore in the north-east. This is the first major project in Pakistan in 40 years in which Russians are involved.

Project terms

The project envisages the construction of five compressor stations. As planned, the project should be ready for the gas pipeline to enter into operation in 2017. During construction, “technology, materials, equipment and products of Russian manufacture” must be used “as much as possible”. Additionally, it is expected that Russian research, design and construction organizations will be involved.

Pakistan, for its part, guarantees the right to use the land along the defined pipe laying route, including for research and other works.

Moscow and Islamabad must now sign an agreement at the ministerial level within a month’s time.

Rostech’s partner in the project will be Inter State Gas Systems (ISGS) controlled by Pakistan.

“The project is being implemented according to a BOOT (build-own-operate-transfer) scheme,” reports the state corporation’s press service. “The gas pipeline will belong to the design company for 25 years. Ownership rights will then be transferred to Pakistan.”

Rostech will attract debt financing, and the state corporation says they are considering Russian as well as foreign (including Pakistani) investors for this.

But Rostech has been under sanctions since 2014. So attracting loans from Western banks is practically excluded as a possibility. “Taking into account the political importance of the project, these could be quasi-public funds, for example, from the VEB,” writes Kommersant, providing a link to a source in the government.

Will Russia be able to compete with China?

The energy deficit in Pakistan has become a major economic problem, in addition to a political one over recent years. The population endures constant rolling blackouts, notes chief researcher at the RAS Institute of Oriental Studies, Vladimir Moskalenko.

“The development of relations  with Pakistan lagged behind for a long time because of Russia’s traditional orientation towards India, and now Moscow must make haste not to lose the Pakistani market to China, which is becoming Islamabad’s main economic partner,” said Moskalenko.

China and Pakistan preliminarily agreed to construct a gas pipeline from Iran to Pakistan in April this year; called the “Peace Pipeline”. Tehran claims the Iranian segment, around 900 kms long, is already built. Islamabad conducted secret talks with China for many months about the construction of its segment of the pipeline, for which US $2 billion is required.

Kommersant’s interlocutor in the government agreed that it was important for Russia to strengthen its position in Pakistan, including in the area of gas transport, from a geopolitical standpoint, since the country could become a major gas transit route to India in the future.

But constructing pipelines in Pakistan could also have a negative effect for Russia,” writes Gazeta.ru. The publication quotes RusEnergy partner Mikhail Krutikhin, who said that “Iran will now conduct negotiations with Pakistan and China, and, essentially, the gas pipeline that Russia builds will become part of a future gas highway from Iran to China. Participating in the Pakistan project is quite disadvantageous to Russia: supplies from Iran will lower Chinese demand for gas, including from Russia,” warned Krutikhin.



via Marshall Horn, CFTC Russia Close to Deal to Build Pakistan Pipeline

Marshall Horn - EU Can't Sell Ukraine Any More Russian Gas

Marshall Horn,

This article originally appeared at ICIS


A planned increase in eastbound pipeline capacity to flow natural gas from Slovakia to Ukraine may not happen this year, a source at the Slovak grid operator Eustream has told ICIS.

In July it was announced that capacity at the Budince border point would rise from 40 million cubic metres (mcm)/day to 57mcm/day by 1 December.

“This is not an easy task, this project requires both investment and construction,” the source at Eustream said. “We are conducting a technical analysis and waiting for permissions from different government agencies at the moment.”

Neither the exact date of when the project could be implemented, nor the final capacity have been agreed yet.

The source said that the Ukrainian grid operator Ukrtransgaz – which approached its Slovak counterpart with an offer to increase the capacity in late spring – was pushing Eustream to accomplish the project as soon as possible. “We are very unhappy about their method,” he said.

Despite repeated requests, Ukrtransgaz was unable to comment on the planned expansion at Budince.

There is currently no written agreement between the two parties over the project, with Eustream unwilling to sign any deal with Ukrtransgaz unless all the details are properly analysed.

Eustream is planning to discuss the technical side of the project this month but no exact date has been scheduled.

Another issue that Eustream is concerned about is how the additional capacity would be sold. The source said the Slovak operator would only want to sell the capacity through an open season.

“For us, it’s the only chance to see if there is any interest among shippers to book the capacity before we invest large amounts of money into this project,” he said.

A trader active on the Slovak and Czech markets said there was enough gas in Slovakia for reverse flows to Ukraine, but the major question was if Ukraine would be able to buy more gas from the EU.

All of Ukraine’s gas is currently being imported via Slovakia, with the country choosing not by Russian volume, or via Poland or Hungary.

Eustream data shows that gas flows from Slovakia to Ukraine via the Budince point fell by 30% over the previous week, averaging at about 26mcm/day.

Ukraine is currently trying to get funding from the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development to buy more European gas. But a representative of the bank told ICIS last week that the EU might may not allocate a $300m financial loan to the country earlier than mid-October. 



via Marshall Horn, CFTC EU Can't Sell Ukraine Any More Russian Gas

Tuesday 8 September 2015

Marshall Horn - Russian Oil Giant to Order Dutch Icebreakers

Marshall Horn,

VLADIVOSTOK, September 4 (Sputnik) – The Dutch shipbuilding giant Damen Shipyards Group will work with the Russian oil company Rosneft, supplying it with icebreaking and offshore construction vessels for the Arctic region, CEO Rene Berkvens told Sputnik on Friday.

“The number of ships is still to be determined but the types of vessels are the typical ones that are needed for exploration, production in the fields that Rosneft is targeting including the Arctic, which means highly sophisticated, complex icebreaking supply vessels, anchor-handling vessels, offshore construction vessels,” Berkvens told Sputnik on the sidelines of the Eastern Economic Forum (EEF).

The company is also providing technology and engineering services for the Zvezda facility in Russia’s Far East, which repairs the submarines in the country’s Pacific Fleet.

The CEO added that Damen Shipyards would be happy to discuss further cooperation with Russian companies.

Rosneft, the leader in Russia’s petroleum industry, is the world’s largest publicly traded oil company. The company operates in every hydrocarbon-rich territory in Russia, including the Far East and the Russian continental shelf, specifically in the Arctic region.

Rosneft is one of the two Russian companies that have been granted licenses to explore the nation’s Arctic shelf.

 



via Marshall Horn, CFTC Russian Oil Giant to Order Dutch Icebreakers

Marshall Horn - Confirmed: Saudi Arabia Offered Russia Oil Alliance and OPEC Membership

Marshall Horn,

Igor Sechin, the powerful head of Rosneft, Russia’s big state oil company, has now confirmed that OPEC - the Saudi dominated oil producers’ cartel - has offered Russia membership.

This comes on the heels of media reports that the Saudis have been pressing the Russians for an “oil alliance” whereby Russia and Saudi Arabia, the world’s two biggest oil producers, would coordinate their production so as to dominate the oil market together.

The Saudi proposal makes complete sense from Saudi Arabia’s point of view.

The Saudi decision last year to maintain oil production at existing levels rather than cut production in response to the oil price fall, was not directed at Russia but at US shale oil producers.

The Saudis know that there is no possibility of the shale oil producers cutting production in cooperation with OPEC. 

If Saudi Arabia and OPEC had cut production last year in order to prop up the oil price the shale oil producers would simply have carried on producing even more oil in order to benefit from the higher price.

Saudi Arabia would have sacrificed its market share and profits simply in order to keep the US shale oil producers in business.

It therefore made total sense for the Saudis last year to maintain production at existing levels in order to price the US shale oil producers out of the oil market.

The Saudis know this will take time - two years at least - but they have calculated, surely rightly, that with their massive financial reserves and their highly liquid banking system they can outlast the heavily indebted US shale oil producers in what is now a price war.

Once the US shale oil producers have been priced out, oil prices will rise.

Some optimistic commentators say that when this happens the US shale oil producers will bounce back and simply start producing again where they left off.

This is a facile idea.  

Shale oil technology is surely here to stay. However the creditors and investors who have poured money into the shale oil industry in recent years - and who stand to lose heavily if the industry falls into crisis because of the low oil price - are going to be very wary of investing in the industry on the same scale again.  

Having had their fingers very badly burnt by the effect of the oil price fall they will be much more careful next time, especially as they now know the Saudis stand ready to flood the market with oil if production once more gets out of hand.

That should be enough to ensure that when the industry recovers it will do so in a more balanced way than what we have seen to date.

A good parallel is with the dot.com boom of the late 1990s. Its collapse did not kill off the internet industry. However it did ensure that the internet industry grew thereafter in a more balanced way.

The very latest reports suggest the US shale oil producers are indeed coming under sustained pressure, and that a process of contraction and consolidation is now underway.

Once the challenge from the US shale oil producers is seen off, it makes sense for the Saudis to see whether they can do a deal with the Russians to stabilise the oil price.

Unlike the US shale oil producers the Russians - like the Saudis - produce oil cheaply (Sechin says it costs them just $3 a barrel).  

There is therefore no possibility the Saudis can price the Russians out of the market as they are now doing to the US shale oil producers.

Given that this is so, and given that Saudi Arabia’s interest is to preserve market share and a stable oil price, it is easy to see why the Saudis should approach the Russians to offer an oil alliance.

The idea is that with the US shale oil producers out of the way the Russians would work with the Saudis to support the oil price by agreeing with the Saudis future output levels, whilst dividing the market with them.

In order to seal the alliance and to make it more effective the Saudis have offered the Russians membership of OPEC (Russia at present is only an observer).

It is now clear that this is the proposal the Saudis made to the Russians over the course of the summer, and that it was this offer which was at the heart of the discussions between the Russians and the Saudis that have attracted so much attention.

For the moment the Russians are saying no. 

This could be a negotiating tactic. The reasons the Russians are giving, that their oil industry is not centrally controlled in the way the oil industry in OPEC states is, and that there are technical problems with switching off Siberian wells during winter, do not on the face of it look terribly convincing. Frankly these look like negotiating ploys.

Possibly the real reason is that the Russians are at present expanding aggressively into the Chinese energy market from which they have just ousted the Saudis as the biggest oil supplier. It may be that the Russians are concerned that the Saudis’ offer is simply a device to get them to limit their expansion in the Chinese market.

If that is so, then there may be scope for more negotiations around this issue.  

Possibly the Saudis could agree to grant the Russians primacy in the Chinese market in return for the Russians conceding to the Saudis primacy in the US and Europe.  

Given the importance of the Russian Chinese strategic partnership to Russia, it is a certainty that if any such discussions are underway the Chinese are being consulted and are involved.

Whether a Saudi Russian oil alliance to control the oil market does emerge remains to be seen.

There is however one final point to make about this issue.

Western governments and the Western media have been insistently saying since last year’s Crimean crisis that Russia is “isolated”.

If this episode does anything it shows the utter falsity of this claim.  

So far from Russia being isolated, it is being actively courted by Saudi Arabia, the US’s key Middle East ally, and has just been offered membership of OPEC.

That is not “isolation” however one defines that word. 

On the contrary it shows the central importance of Russia in world affairs and in the operation of the global economy.



via Marshall Horn, CFTC Confirmed: Saudi Arabia Offered Russia Oil Alliance and OPEC Membership

Marshall Horn - Russia's Counter-Sanctions Spark a National Cheese Revival

Marshall Horn,

This article originally appeared in The Guardian


Feta from Vologda and camembert from Krasnodar are on the shelves, but sustainability is not key for big producers. Could the emergence of local, organic producers teach the sector some lessons?

A year after Russia banned the import of dairy, meat and fish products from European and other western nations in response to sanctions against it over its actions in Ukraine, a wide array of cheeses is back on store shelves. Shoppers can expect to find the usual variety, but may be surprised to see mozzarella from Tver, feta from Vologda and camembert from Krasnodar.

Russia swoops on gang importing £19m of banned cheese from abroad

The negative impact of the sanctions is clear. Images of contraband western foodbeing incinerated in Russia have led to condemnation in a country where nearly16% of the population live below the poverty line. And the European dairy sector, which last year exported around €2.3bn (£1.7bn) worth of dairy products to the country, is starting to feel the hit. But as the government pushes for a more self-sufficient agricultural sector, and Russian cheeses come into their own, could there be positive consequences for sustainability in the cheese sector?

The rise of Russian cheese 

“When sanctions were first introduced, the feeling was, ‘Thank goodness, a breather’,” says Andrei Danilenko, chairman of Russia’s National Association of Milk Producers. “The Russian consumer has always been fussy in that basic cheeses can be produced in Russia, but real cheese has to be produced in Italy or France.” 

Many cheese producers were “on the edge of survival”, he says, as the market was heavily weighed towards imports. The rouble’s devaluation in the last year has made dollar-based imports twice as expensive.

A goal of Vladimir Putin’s newly appointed agriculture minister Alexander Tkachyov, is for Russian products to replace all food imports within a decade. In the last year, cheese made in Russia has increased by almost a quarter, while imports dropped more than ninefold, from 385,000 tonnes in 2014 to 41,000 tonnes in 2015, according to analysis by the National Association of MilkProducers.

Russian supermarket chains, lacking alternatives, have come after national cheese makers saying, “Give us cheese”, says Danilenko. Large cheese makers, such as St Petersburg-based Neva Cheese, have reaped the benefits of the import ban. Neva Cheese’s Sirtaki feta is now the country’s best-selling feta brand.

Local production, with shorter supply chains over which producers have more control, can help a sector become more sustainable. But the picture is complex in Russia. The country produces only 60% of the raw milk needed for dairy products, according to Danilenko. Some Russian cheese makers have resorted to “imported dry milk, dairy proteins and unfortunately there are those who use palm oil which is not supposed to be used”, he adds. 

Palm oil can be used as a cheaper alternative to dairy, and aside from its environmental impact, it is not considered an ingredient for “real” cheese.

The local organic movement

Bigger Russian businesses may be able to learn important lessons from small, local cheese producers who are seeking to promote organic produce with local ingredients from sustainable supply chains.

Giulio Zompi, an Italian restauranteur from Verona who has lived in Moscow for 12 years, makes mozzarella, ricotta and burrata for his Moscow deli. “We made a small logo, ‘Made in Russia by Italians’, as a kind of customer guarantee,” he says. And LavkaLavka, a farmers’ co-operative co-founded by Boris Akimov in 2009, aims to connect consumers with local producers and introduce the idea of organic to Russian consumers.

Akimov believes the sustainability of the Russian dairy sector depends on making smallholder goods marketable.

“Before the revolution, our food culture included a lot of dairy,” he says. “People in modern Russia know what mozzarella is but have forgotten what ryazhenka [soured, baked milk] is. There is a cheese fear among Russian farmers – we need to recover traditions.”

Six years ago, Akimov started to explore farmers’ markets, searching for “tasty, natural Russian food”. It started as a hobby, which then turned into a business that today includes a farmers’ cooperative with 200 organic farmers, five stores, a restaurant, a cafe and a vegetable box delivery business.

 

Russia is a haven for would-be organic farmers as land is relatively cheap and abundant, negating the need for many intensive agriculture inputs, yet to date there is no national organic certification. LavkaLavka is the first company in the country to create its own organic certification.

“We verify our farmers every year,” says Akimov. “I can’t say the system works perfectly. Some farmers ask ‘Why don’t you believe me?’ when we come to recertify them. Also, consumers don’t always understand, they think it’s just advertising. We need time to make this work.”

LavkaLavka sells camembert and chevre as well as Russian favourites such as cottage cheeses, curd and ryazhenka, traceable back to individual farmers who are profiled on the company’s website.

While LavkaLavka’s organic products are out of reach for most Russians, prices will be 30-40% lower in the farmers’ market it is opening in December in the Mega Khimki mall, one of eastern Europe’s biggest retail centres and home to many big-box retailers. “Our spirit is egalitarian, we don’t want to sell only to rich people,” Akimov says.

As a result of a drastically altered market, according to Danilenko, Russian consumers are now more willing to consider Russian-made cheeses. Local producers like LavkaLavka hope to use this new landscape to put organic, sustainable cheese on the menu.



via Marshall Horn, CFTC Russia's Counter-Sanctions Spark a National Cheese Revival

Monday 7 September 2015

Marshall Horn - Japan Bank: US Sanctions Could Lead to Direct Ruble-Yen Swaps

Marshall Horn,

 

September 3, (Sputnik) - The Japan Bank for International Cooperation's senior managing director has said that the establishment is turning to Ruble-Yen swaps, as using the US dollar in transactions is difficult because of the Western anti-Russia sanctions.

Japan Bank for International Cooperation (JBIC) is turning to currency swaps as using the US dollar in transactions is difficult because of the Western anti-Russia sanctions, the bank’s senior managing director said answering a question from Sputnik.

“We’re now studying that [the effects of ruble devaluation]. We need some of the swap arrangements with the local banks. We are elaborating opportunities with Russian banks such as Gazprombank, VTB, VEB… Because of the US sanctions, we cannot use the US dollar anymore, we have to switch to other currencies,” Tadashi Maeda said on Thursday, speaking after a conference at the Eastern Economic Forum (EEF) in the Russian city of Vladivostok.

Commenting on the usage of the ruble in swaps, he noted that its interest rate is very high at the moment and this could “hinder” the swaps.

China launched swaps and forwards between the yuan and the Russian ruble in December 2014, making the ruble the 11th currency in the yuan swaps trading.

In October of last year, the Bank of Russia and the People's Bank of China reached a three-year agreement on currency swaps worth more than $2.4 billion.

In April, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said that he expected the overall trade turnover between China and Russia to reach $100 billion in 2015.

Russia is currently holding the Eastern Economic Forum (EEF) in the city of Vladivostok.

This is the first time that Russia has decided to hold a forum in the Far East since the introduction of Western sanctions over Moscow's alleged involvement in Ukraine's internal conflict, something that Russia has repeatedly denied.

China is sending an official government delegation and members of its business community to the EEF.

 



via Marshall Horn, CFTC Japan Bank: US Sanctions Could Lead to Direct Ruble-Yen Swaps

Sunday 6 September 2015

Marshall Horn - Gazprom Keeps Scoring Goals - Revives German Asset Swap Deal

Marshall Horn,

This article originally appeared at Natural Gas Europe


Gazprom scored some goals also on Friday. In a few hours, it signed Shareholders’ Agreement on the Nord Stream 2 project; agreed with Austria’s  over the importance of long-term cooperation; and more importantly, it signed an agreement to close the deal on the exchange of assets with ’s subsidiary Wintershall Holding.

‘Today in Vladivostok as part of the Eastern Economic Forum Alexey Miller, Chairman of the Board of Gazprom, and Kurt Bock, BASF’s Chief Executive Officer, signed an agreement to close the deal on the exchange of assets between Gazprom and the company Wintershall Holding GmbH’ reads a note released on Friday.

According to the Wall Street Journal, the surprise U-turn underscores the challenge multinationals face navigating the standoff between Russia and the West over separatist violence in Ukraine.

The multibillion-euro asset swap with Germany’s BASF seemed dead in December 2014. BASF will expand its oil and gas production, while exiting gas trading and storage. Gazprom will control a jointly operated European gas trading and storage business, including the biggest underground gas storage facility in western Europe.

Meanwhile, Gazprom also reached other agreements. Miller met with OMV CEO Rainer Seele. If the deal is concluded, OMV will acquire a 24.98 per cent stake in the  in the development of Areas IV and V of the Achimov formation of the Urengoy oil, gas and condensate field in Russia, in exchange for a participation in assets of OMV. 

“This agreement is another step towards cooperation along the entire value chain with Gazprom. We are importing gas from Russia for our European customers. We are investing together into the security of supply realizing the Nord Stream 2 project and we are now extending our trustful partnership towards the production of natural gas in Siberia,” Rainer Seele commented.  

As said by Seele, Gazprom signed a Shareholders’ Agreement on implementation of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline project with BASF, , ENGIE, and Shell

“Nord Stream 2 will double the throughput of our direct, state-of-the-art gas supply route via the Baltic Sea. It is important that those are mostly the new gas volumes, which will be sought for in Europe due to the continuous decline in its domestic production.The fact that the global energy majors participate in the project bespeaks its significance for securing reliable gas supply to European consumers,” Miller commented.



via Marshall Horn, CFTC Gazprom Keeps Scoring Goals - Revives German Asset Swap Deal

Marshall Horn - Volkswagen Launches $250 Mln Auto Factory in Russia

Marshall Horn,

KALUGA, September 4 (TASS) - Volkswagen Group Rus launched the 250 million-euro auto engine factory in Kaluga in central Russia on Friday.

The facility is located on the territory of the Grabtsevo technological park close to the Volkswagen auto factory.

“The enterprise will produce Series EA211 gasoline-powered engines with a capacity of 1.6 liters for Volkswagen Polo and Skoda Rapid cars produced at Volkswagen’s Kaluga auto plant. A part of engines will be supplied to the Nizhny Novgorod factory for Skoda Octavia, Skoda Yeti and Volkswagen cars,” Technical Director of Volkswagen’s new factory Vitaly Nakhtigal said at a presentation of the new facility’s products.

The new facility will produce 150,000 engines a year and “will use the modern technology of metal stock’s dry machining,” Nakhtigal added.

Volkswagen Group Rus has been among the first foreign companies that has built and launched its own engine-making plant in Russia.

From 2016, 30% of cars produced in Russia should be equipped with Russian engines.

“We’re both increasing the percentage of our cars’ localization and making them more affordable for our Russian buyers,” Volkswagen Group Rus General Director Marcus Ozegovic said.

“Despite all economic difficulties, we have fulfilled all the obligations and this will become a true Russian product and an example of localization in Russia,” he added.

Local supplies for Volkswagen Group Rus are expected to reach 50% with the launch of the new engine-making facility in Kaluga, the company said earlier.

The technological process at the new enterprise will be fully automatized and use 13 robotic systems produced by German, Slovenian and Italian hi-tech companies.

The new gasoline-powered engines will meet Euro-5 environmental standards.

“The region has invested 34 million euros in creating the factory’s infrastructure,” Kaluga Region acting Governor Anatoly Artamonov said at the ceremony of the factory’s launch.

Volkswagen’s Kaluga auto plant produces Volkswagen Polo Sedan, Volkswagen Tiguan and Skoda Rapid cars. Its annual capacity is 225,000 cars a year. Volkswagen Group Rus has been manufacturing cars in Kaluga since November 2007 and employs about 5,000 people.



via Marshall Horn, CFTC Volkswagen Launches $250 Mln Auto Factory in Russia

Friday 4 September 2015

Marshall Horn - Russian Truck Makers Boom Thanks to Sanctions, Cheap Ruble

Marshall Horn,

This article originally appeared  in Russian at Politrussia, translated by South Front


Everyone knows that the Russian automotive market today is struggling through the crisis. Nevertheless the term “import-replacement” is most applicable to the Russian automotive world despite its complicated situation.

At least when it comes to trucks – Russian GAZs and “Urals” are steadily stealing the show. It’s important to note that from the beginning of the year, Russian truck market that’s most sensitive during a crisis fell by 60% during the 1st half of this year. Overseas truck brands were hit the hardest, some of which were forced to stop production in Russia. 

Brotherly Belorussian industry is not experiencing the best times either. The demand for Belorussian MAZ somewhat decreased as well. What we are witnessing is a substantial decrease in controlling share of the Russian market by western truck producers. Meanwhile the share of market control by Russian producers has significantly increased. Today “KamAz” and “Ural” together control nearly 70% of the market! 

The Rouble devaluation in 2014 and the continuous wreaking of the Rouble forced western automotive companies to leave the Russian market, meanwhile the Russian producers filled the lacuna the crisis created. Russian producers always created serious competition in price/quality ratio when it came to trucks. Russian trucks have always been famous for their ease of use, ease of exploitation and being easy to fix all for a low price.

The government played a big role in helping KamAz gaining a large share of the automotive market, at least according to KamAz representatives. At the end of March, Prime Minister Medvedev noted poor state of affairs in the Russian automotive industry during the government general assembly. He noted that the government will provide automotive industry funds to support it, including the industry in Tatarstan, Samara region (AvtoVaz) and in other regions. “Naturally, larger industries will receive greater support as that’s where economic crisis hit the most. That’s where the situation is almost critical. I am referring to the automotive industry… it is because of this these subjects were selected and so the respective targets will receive greater support. These are “KamAz”, “AvtoVaz”, “Altaivagon”, “Tverskoi train-carriage factory” – Dmitrii Medvedev noted.

Now lets crunch some numbers. “KamAz” and “Ural” took up a greater portion of the Russian market because their sales did not suffer as much as those of their Western counter-parts. “KamAz” reduced its sales by 50% to 7,7 thousand units. In terms of its profit, “KamAz” received more than 30 billion roubles in revenue, that’s one and a half times less than what the company received last year.

“Ural” truck production has been reduced by 8%, to 2,4 thousand units. Meanwhile the production of western truck brands in Russia has been decreased by 76%. Companies such as Volvo, Scania, MAN, Mercedes-Benz and others have nearly disappeared from the Russian market. Experts predict that in the next 5 years, it is very likely that western companies, if they do not disappear from the Russian market, they will occupy only around 20-25% of the Russian market. It is predicted that Western brands are very unlikely to gain higher market share than that.

However its not the western brands that are hitting rock bottom at the Russian market, it’s the Belorussian “MAZ” who’s sales have slumped by 84%. “MAZ” sold only around 600 trucks on the Russian market, that’s around than 4% of the market. Russian industry has taken over around 70% of the Russian market, as mentioned above – “KamAz” has increased its share by 10% to 54,3% of the market, “Ural” from “GAZ” group increased its presence by 9.7% of the market. Thus “Ural” controls nearly 17% of the Russian market.

GAZ group explains its high share of the automotive market by the fact that the Russian automotive market shrank more than the actuall decrease in “Ural” sales. Moreover GAZ group released new “Ural” model, “Ural-M” its release has already been realised in first half of 2015.

In terms of western producers, their market share has decrease to 24%, even worse their share is expected to decrease due to Rouble and further financial instability in the Russian Federation and on top of that domestic consumers prefer national products. A number of international companies have stopped production by this time. Like Volvo factory in Kaluga, paused production of its 15,000 planned trucks in February 2015. Its very likely that the production in this factory is unlikely to continue. Mitsubishi productions we halted in Naberezhye Chelnye, a bit later in April. The companies announced that their productions are likely to resume in September. At the same time the factories in Saint-Petersburg belonging to Scania, MAN and Daimler in Naberezhye Chelnye continue their production.

Modernised bonnet version “Ural-M”

Modernised bonnet version “Ural-M”

KamAz productions are not slowing down either; infact the company increases its capabilities for the upcoming years, irrespective of the tough financial times. There is a high demand in the Kamsk factory. Demand is high in the government sector as much as in the commercial one. Fairly recently, the shores of Kamsk have released fresh 46 specially outfitted trucks for the emergency services. Kamsk truck production has exceeded all expectations, instead of trucks expecting to aid the emergency services in October this year; they fulfilled their ranks already this month. Its nice to know that our industry can still impress us. That’s not all; the enterprise has increased its minimal wage by 2.5% to 6120 Roubles. It’s not that much, but the trend is more than welcome.

At the end of July, KamAz stated that it will extend its working days in August. They explained this with a significant increase in orders for their products. “First working week will be a 5 day working week, from 3 to 7th August. Afterwards, most of our workers will take their planned paid leave as was planned last year. Leave taken by our workers, from 10th to 23rd August will be used to modernise our equipment use in our 24hr production schedule. Last week of August is planned to have 4 working days only from 24th to 27th August.” – Company announced.

Experts explain the success of Russian producers by the fact that Rouble devaluation and its repercussions force consumers to buy less expensive machinery. The government support influences high demand in Russian producers, government programmes make Russian producers price 10% cheaper along with other loans the government provides. Also the government orders play an important part in the high demand. On top of that the government is subsidising the acquisition of motor vehicles.

Our truck giants are experimenting on remote-controlled trucks; they are researching these monsters in their respective experimental departments. The leader in this field is KamAz is working on these systems jointly with “VIST Group”. In May, KamAz saw its first model of the remote controlled prototype based on KamAz 5350, its saw it’s first testing in Naberezhnye Chelny and on a special site in Moscow emergency services. It was first planned to start releasing this model in 2025, however circumstances are such that it’s very likely this model will be produced earlier. Now the machines are expected to be released by 2020. More than 17 billion Roubles are invested into the project. AvtoVAZ and GAZ are following KamAZ’s footsteps in developing autonomous trucks. Only time will tell how successful their developments have been.

The first Russian remote-controlled truck model is based on KamAZ 5350

The first Russian remote-controlled truck model is based on KamAZ 5350

Despite devaluation and other market related hardships, Russian heavy automotive industry is not going to surrender. Instead, it avoids any drama and tragedy in its course, it stands firm and endures the hardships. It is important to note that the government has been swift to provide the necessary support for Russian heavy industry. The Russian industry has shown itself in a bright light by taking the initiative and taking a respective share of the market in difficult circumstances. The western producers suffered greately in the Russian market because of the western sanctions, however this gives the Russian industry a once in a lifetime opportunity to become the dominant automotive industry in the post-USSR territory. The Russian industry is making a comeback!



via Marshall Horn, CFTC Russian Truck Makers Boom Thanks to Sanctions, Cheap Ruble

Wednesday 2 September 2015

Marshall Horn - Russia's First Stock Exchange Now 20 Years Old: It's Been a Crazy Ride

Marshall Horn,

On September 1 traders celebrated the birthday of Russia's dollar-denominated stock exchange, the Russian Trading System (RTS), which was established exactly 20 years ago on September 1, 1995 with 100 listed shares and the index set at 100.

In 2006 the ruble-denomincated MICEX exchange was added to the mix – the home of the all-important Gazprom local shares – but the RTS remains the key index for most foreign investors, who used to make up half the market’s capitalisation, mainly as deals could be settled in safer domiciles like Cyprus.

The exchange, with just under 200 listed stocks, has often been the best performing index in the world or the worst, so it has been hard to make money consistently. Certainly with valuations depressed to rock bottom at the moment, few portfolio investors believe in Russian stocks and the market has suffered some of the heaviest outflows amongst the emerging markets in recent months.

The index set an all-time low in the wake of Russia’s first big financial crisis on August 17, 1998. The index bottomed out at 38.53 on 5 October 1998 after Russia defaulted on its sovereign debt.

Timing, rather than stock picking, has been the key to making money on the RTS and investors brave enough to plonk some money into the market at the end of 1999 would have enjoyed a ride to the market's all time high of 2,488 on 19 May 2008. That’s a hefty 6,357% price return in less than 10 years, or 54% annualized, according to VTB.

“The longest bull market lasted for eight consecutive months, ending in May 2002. The longest decline (also eight months) ended in January 2009, when the all-time low of 498 was posted on 23 January 2009,” VTB said in a note celebrating the birthday. “The sharpest daily moves in both directions were both achieved in the autumn of 2008, with a 22% increase on 19 September followed by a 19% drop on 6 October. The biggest monthly moves, though, were seen in the index’s early years: it was down 56% in August 1998, but grew the same 56% in December 1999. The most recent lows were achieved during December’s currency crisis (bottoming at 629 on 16 December). The index now trades at 834 points.”

 



via Marshall Horn, CFTC Russia's First Stock Exchange Now 20 Years Old: It's Been a Crazy Ride

Monday 31 August 2015

Marshall Horn - Market Volatility - US Federal Reserve Dithers: Russia Stays Calm

Marshall Horn,

The thesis that it is US dithering about interest rates and not events in China that is behind the recent market volatility has received strong confirmation from the events of the last week.

At the start of the week financial markets - Wall Street included - plunged on fears of a September rate increase.

An article however had appeared in the Financial Times over the preceding weekend, written by the former US Treasury Secretary Larry Summers (a contender for the post of Chair of the Federal Reserve Board before Janet Yellen’s appointment last year).

In the article Summers said raising interest rates would be a dangerous mistake.

On Twitter Summers went further still - calling for more quantitative easing (ie. electronic money printing).

As news of Summers’s comments spread, the markets recovered.  

They got a further boost when on Tuesday William Dudley, a member of the Board of the Federal Reserve, also appeared to damp down prospects of a rate increase in September.

The markets responded with a spectacular recovery. In the last two days of the week oil prices surged by 15%.

Come the weekend and the pendulum in the policy debate in Washington swung back again. The monetary hardliners (who probably include Yellen) reasserted themselves, and the signals from the Federal Reserve Board went into reverse.

Comments made on Friday by Stanley Fischer, the Federal Reserve Board’s Vice Chair, suggested that an interest rate increase in September had not been ruled out after all.

This happened in conjunction with the publication of revised statistics of the performance of the US economy in the second quarter. These appeared to show the US achieving much higher growth than previously assumed.

Those who follow such things closely will know that there is a longstanding debate in the US about the reliability of US statistics.  

I am not qualified to comment on this debate. All I will say is that because the reliability of the statistics is widely doubted, when a revision of the sort we have just seen comes along there is inevitably suspicion that it has appeared for some purpose - in this case to justify a rate increase in September. Whether true or not, it is what many people believe, and it has an effect on what they do. 

Renewed concern the Federal Reserve Board will raise rates in September has had the predictable effect on the markets: they are all down, including oil which as I write this has fallen by 2.7% on the day.

The market volatility is causing concern around the world, including of course in Russia.

At the end of the last week the Russian government convened a meeting to discuss the volatility.  

The calm comments by the participants - in particular of Finance Minister Anton Siluanov and Central Bank Chair Elvira Nabiullina, which we reproduce below - show confidence that the situation is in hand.  

Siluanov said that he expects oil prices to remain low for some time. He also said Russia may have to adjust part of its budget spending to take account of this. There is no hint here of panic or crisis, just a calm acknowledgement of reality, and of steps being taken to deal with it.

As for Nabiullina, she appears to have no doubts about the underlying stability of the banking system, or of Russian banks’ and companies’ abilities to meet their foreign loan payments.  

Nor is she concerned with defending the rouble at any particular level. Her goal remains what it has always been: reducing inflation.

Achievement of this goal obviously requires the Russian authorities to take steps to insulate the economy as far as possible from the price effects of the rouble’s fall.  Nabiullina says as much.  

The sharp fall in imports already caused by last year’s devaluation, and the ban on food imports from the EU, means that to a great extent this has already been done.

At this point it is possible to make one further important point.

The rouble’s value is closely connected to the oil price, and the rouble’s fall last year was caused by the fall in the oil price.

Whilst this has also been true of the fall the rouble experienced this summer, it is important to say that because Russia is an emerging market economy the rouble would have fallen this summer anyway, even if Russia had not been an energy exporter.

The currencies of all emerging market economies, including ones that are major manufacturing exporters such as Vietnam and South Korea, have fallen this summer.  

Countries like Vietnam and South Korea are not energy exporters, so the fall in the oil prices is not the reason their currencies fell. The reason their currencies fell is because money has shifted from emerging market economies to the US in the expectation of a rate increase there.

It is the expectations of a US rate increase that is also behind the fall in the price of oil.  

It was also the trigger for the fall of China’s admittedly overvalued stock market, as money left China for the US causing the stock market to crash.

When it comes to currency depreciations, China is the big exception that proves the rule. 

Apart from a fractional and tightly managed devaluation, the value of the Chinese currency has held steady, not because China is any less affected by money flows to the US than other emerging market economies, but because China's currency is managed, and the Chinese with £3 trillion of reserves have the financial fire power to manage it.  

In the absence of such management the Chinese currency would have depreciated along with the others - according to some estimates by between 10-15% against the dollar. 

As it is China is believed to have spent around $200 billion to prop up its currency over the last few weeks - a figure that dwarfs the amounts Russia spent to support the rouble during any comparable period last year.

Russia’s currency is volatile not because Russia’s economy is insufficiently diversified. It is volatile because like other emerging market economies whose currencies have experienced similar volatility this summer, Russia’s financial system is small and immature causing Russian companies to look abroad for financing and loans.

Until this changes the rouble will remain volatile however “diversified” the economy becomes.  For this to change Russia needs to strengthen its financial system - something which is happening, but which takes time.

In the meantime, the Russian government has taken the precautions needed to protect the economy from the volatility, and it has every reason to remain calm.


The following report is taken from the Russian Presidential Website:

Vladimir Putin: ……….

We are aware of the situation on the Asian stock markets and the international financial currency markets, and the situation with oil prices. All of this has its effect one way or another on our financial market. I would like Mr Siluanov to comment on these developments and give his assessments.

Finance Minister Anton Siluanov: Indeed, Mr President, in the past days we have seen greater volatility on the world financial and commodities markets. We see that stock markets have gone down by about 10 percent, prices of raw materials have also gone down, there has been a weakening of currencies, especially those of the developing countries and especially those that export primarily raw materials. The national currencies of those countries have lost 5 to 15 percent.

The reason, of course, is the increasing unpredictability of the Chinese economy’s growth. The Chinese economy is currently one of the major economies influencing world demand, including demand for raw materials. Among such reasons, we also see the overproduction of oil; there are constant excessive volumes of oil being produced, while demand is not growing at the rate that was expected earlier. We are also witnessing pressure on financial markets, expectations of increased rates from the Federal Reserve System, which, as we know, may lead to a withdrawal of capital from developing markets.

The drop in oil prices is undoubtedly having the greatest effect on the Russian financial market. During the past month, the prices went down by some 20 percent, about 10 percent in the past week alone. This inevitably had an impact on the financial market of the Russian Federation: the ruble lost about 10 percent, just as many other currencies in countries, as I have said, with developing economies; the stock market here has dropped by about 15 percent since early August.

We have already witnessed a similar situation with the exchange rate early this year, but a rise in oil prices then led to a strengthening of the ruble. We should not rule out a repeat of this development. However, analysts dealing with the oil market say the oil price drop may be long term and we need to prepare for such a possibility and work to ensure financial and budget stability.

Of course, Mr President, we will comply with all our budget commitments for this year. This year we will need to use the reserves that we have accumulated, but these reserves are not unlimited, and for next year and the following budget cycle we have to align our commitments with the new macroeconomic situation. The Government is currently working on such proposals and we will present them for your consideration.

Vladimir Putin: Ms Nabiullina, would you like to add anything?

Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina: Overall, I agree with the assessment provided by Mr Siluanov, but I would like to say that the key factor affecting the ruble, which is the price of oil, is volatile. We have already seen this year that it can go up and down: this year alone there was a period when it grew by 23 percent and then dropped by 38 percent. Therefore, we can expect change any minute.

True, our financial system is part of the global system and is not protected from all the existing risks. However, we modelled various scenarios well in advance, knowing that a pessimistic one is possible, so that we could prepare. Thus, for instance, whenever possible we increased our gold and currency reserves to create a long-term basis for our financial stability and to strengthen our safety net.

We have introduced currency refinancing mechanisms. We envisaged a $50 billion limit on loans to banks to avoid excessive pressure on the currency market. We have spent $34 billion of that reserve, and we believe that the remaining $16 billion would be enough. At the same time, we decided that we would not refinance these amounts for banks that have used up their annual limits so they feel more comfortable.

Moreover, we have decided to loosen bank regulation to allow our banking system to adapt. We have curtailed a number of measures because the banks did not need them, and were planning to discontinue more as of October 1. However, now, depending on how the situation is going to develop, we are ready to retain those measures with certain modifications.

The main thing now is for the exchange rate fluctuations to have a minimal effect on prices. I mean that after the drop in the exchange rate early this year we managed to get inflation under control. For 16 weeks, weekly inflation was about 0.01 percent, with the exception of the week when we had our traditional rate increase. Therefore, we will continue in the same way to ensure a further drop in inflation.



via Marshall Horn, CFTC Market Volatility - US Federal Reserve Dithers: Russia Stays Calm

Sunday 30 August 2015

Marshall Horn - Russia Continues to Orbit British Satellites

Marshall Horn,

MOSCOW - Russia on Friday successfully launched a Proton rocket with a British satellite in the first such launch since an engine failure in May resulted in a Mexican satellite being destroyed.

A Proton-M rocket carrying an Inmarsat-5 F3 communications satellite has been launched from Baikonur cosmodrome in Kazakhstan at 1144 GMT as scheduled, Russia's space agency Roscosmos said in a statement.

“The launch went as planned as all the systems operated remarkably well,” Roscosmos spokesman Igor Burenkov told reporters.

The launch is crucial for Inmarsat, Britain's biggest satellite operator, which said that together with two other satellites, it will create “the world's first globally available, high-speed mobile broadband service, delivered through a single provider.”

 


via Marshall Horn, CFTC Russia Continues to Orbit British Satellites

Thursday 27 August 2015

Marshall Horn - Weak Ruble Drives Russian Car Production Boom

Marshall Horn,

August 26th (Sputnik) - Volkswagen and Hyundai are planning to take advantage of the weak ruble and boost production in their Russian factories of vehicles for export markets in the Middle East and Far East, company representatives announced this week.

In the coming weeks, Hyundai will begin delivering the Solaris, produced in its Russian factory, overseas to Egypt and Lebanon, the company's Russian head office stated on August 25. 

By the end of August, the carmaker's Russian factory will have produced a pilot batch of 550 cars, and has plans to deliver around 4,000 cars to countries in the Middle East by the end of the year. 

“We have carried out a lot of work in order to be ready for the beginning of our cars' exports to the Middle East, and we consider that the recourse to new markets is our contribution to the development of Russian-produced export goods,” said Choi Dong El, general director of Hyundai's Russian factory, which is located on the outskirts of St. Petersburg and employs more than 2,200 people, who produce 200,000 cars a year. 

Sergey Tselikov, head of Russian automobile analytical agency Autostat, told Izvestiya that foreign producers in Russia are able to take advantage of the greater capacity of Russian car factories:

“The real capacity of Russian car production is three million cars per year, and I estimate that this year around 1.2 million will be built. The factories are working at 50 percent of their total capacity, so it's logical to look to replace the falling demand in our country with demand from other markets,” said Tselikov, who estimated the potential export volume at 150,000 – 200,000 cars a year.

On Tuesday, Marcus Ozegovich, general director of Volkswagen Group Russia, told Izvestiya that along with Hyundai, his company has plans to take advantage of the weakness of the Russian currency and boost exports to countries that share a border with Russia. 

“I'm not talking about exports to the Commonwealth of Independent States [CIS], which we have been doing for a long time, I have global exports in mind.”

“It's not that simple: there are global export currents, agreements, logistical expenses, tax and customs nuances of different countries, and so on.”

“It's quite a significant challenge for us, which eventually will allow us to improve our quality here.”

The plan to increase production for exports to wider markets is an unprecedented step for foreign car manufacturers based in Russia, where production has traditionally focused on the car market in Russia and the CIS.

Cars for the export market have instead been largely produced by Russian carmakers such as AvtoVAZ, which manufactures the Lada, as well as UAZ, manufacturer of off-road vehicles, and GAZ and KAMAZ, which make trucks.

Car expert Igor Morzheretto told Izvestiya that exports from Russia could even end up in the Western European car market:

“Western Europe could be among the regions which import such budget cars. For example, when Renault developed the Romanian Dacia brand, in the beginning it was also supposed that these cars are only for developing countries, and now you can see them anywhere in the European Union,” explained Morzheretto, who named the Volkswagen Polo sedan, which is produced only in Russia at the Volkswagen factory in Kaluga, as one such possible export. 



via Marshall Horn, CFTC Weak Ruble Drives Russian Car Production Boom

Marshall Horn - Ukraine Reaches Agreement With Creditors - But the Figures Don't Add Up

Marshall Horn,

An announcement on 27th August 2015 has confirmed that Ukraine has reached a restructuring deal with its private creditors.

However, as the article from the Financial Times attached below makes clear, it is far from certain that the deal comes anywhere close to meeting Ukraine's needs.  

On the face of it the agreement looks like a bad deal for Ukraine.

Ukraine was demanding a 40% haircut. It got only 20%. 

Ukraine's creditors have also agreed to delay bond (ie capital) payments on the remaining debt for four years, though Ukraine will have to continue to make coupon (interest) payments at a slightly higher rate during this period.  

In return Ukraine has agreed to a GDP linked security that will pay its creditors a percentage of its economic growth after the debt repayment holiday ends in 2019.  It seems 40% of any economic growth over 4% will have to be used to pay off debt. This will be on top of any regular capital and interest payments that fall due.

That suggests a very heavy period of debt repayments after 2019, after the four year bond payment holiday ends, and when the IMF programme also ends.  

Not surprisingly the Financial Times reports worries amongst financial analysts that this may be too heavy a burder for Ukraine to bear.

Judging from the last paragraph of the Financial Times's article, Ukraine may be hoping to overcome this problem by further borrowing in the capital markets.

It remains to be seen whether lenders, once they have done the sums, will be prepared to lend it extra money.

The agreement still needs some creditors to agree. The pressure on them to do so will however be so great that it is a virtual certainty they will do so.

The agreement does not cover the $3 billion payment on the eurobond held by Russia, which matures in December.  

What are the implications of this agreement?

Firstly, though the IMF is backing the agreement (it has no other choice), it is far from obvious that the sums add up.  

The IMF’s latest programme assumes a reduction of Ukraine’s total debt repayments over the duration of the programme of $15 billion.  

The Financial Times says the total amount of debt at issue in the negotiations is $18 billion, and says the value of the haircut is $3.6 billion (20% of $18 billion).

TASS says the total amount of debt at issue in the negotiations is $19.2 billion, and says the value of the haircut is $3.8 billion (20% of $19.2 billion).  

TASS may be giving the more accurate figure.  The Financial Times also says the total value of the write off is “close to $4 billion” - which seems more consistent with TASS's $3.8 billion figure than the Financial Times's $3.6 billion.

There is no information on how much Ukraine will save as a result of the cancellation of the interest payments for the debt that is subject the haircut. Nor do we know how much relief it will get from the four year bond payment holiday.

However, on the face of it, whether the haircut is worth $3.6 billion or $3.8 billion, the sums look too small to come anywhere close to hitting the $15 billion debt reduction target the IMF was looking for.

Ukraine’s demand for a 40% haircut by contrast would have written off £7.2 billion if the debt is $18 billion, or $7.68 billion if it is $19.2 billion, which together with cancelled interest payments and the four year bond payment holiday might have brought the debt relief target of $15 billion within sight.

More clarity will be provided as more information becomes available. However the Financial’s Times’s pessimism about the sustainability of what has just been agreed tells its own story.

If the $15 billion debt reduction target is not being achieved, then unless the West provides more money or Ukraine's economy suddenly improves, the IMF programme will fail.

Why did this agreement take so long to agree - especially given the immense pressure from Western governments on the creditors to settle - and why is it so unfavourable to Ukraine?

Firstly, it is important to say that it was not because the creditors anticipated that in the absence of an agreement the IMF would pull the plug on Ukraine - forcing Ukraine to settle on their terms.  

As we have previously reported the IMF - under political pressure - has said it will support Ukraine regardless of whether it comes to an agreement with its creditors or not.

Nor is it likely that the creditors thought that if Ukraine defaulted they would get all their money back through credit default swaps. These were unlikely to come anywhere close to compensating the creditors fully for the money they would have lost.

The creditors held out because what Ukraine was demanding was completely unreasonable.

Ukraine's debt is not unsustainable. The Financial Times says the total amount Ukraine must pay on its debt (public and private) is $72 billion. 

This ought to be perfectly sustainable for a country that is the second biggest in Europe, has a well-educated population of more than 40 million people, and which is blessed with an abundance of natural resources, large industries, a lengthy coastline, and some of the most fertile agricultural land in the world.

By contrast Greece, with a total debt of $350 billion, is a small country, has a population of just 11 million people, has very few industries, and few natural resources.

Parallels people make between the situations of Greece and Ukraine are simply wrong. Greece’s debt is obviously unsustainable. Ukraine’s debt is not.

The reason Ukraine is failing to pay its debt is not because its debt is unsustainable. It is because Ukraine is chronically mismanaged and insists on waging war rather than restoring its economy by making peace.

The creditors therefore question why they should be asked to agree to huge haircuts when - provided Ukraine ends the war and sorts out its problems - it is perfectly capable of paying them the money it owes them.

The Financial Times explains the creditors’ position clearly:

“Bondholders had rejected Ukraine’s assertion that they must take a 40 per cent upfront loss, arguing that the country’s problems were mutable and that a temporary freeze in debt payments would be a better solution, delaying a final deal until political and economic problems calm.”

Ukraine did not help its case by acting as if the creditors were under some sort of moral duty to write off the debt; and by constantly complaining that it was spending more on debt payments than on defence - leading to the inevitable suspicion that it was intending to use any money saved on debt payments to fund the war.

The result is what looks like an unsatisfactory outcome both for Ukraine and the IMF.  Given the political pressure they will doubtless press on with their programme, but the sums do not look like they add up.

Recent news of the deterioration of Ukraine’s economy anyway calls the IMF's whole programme into question. Even if a much bigger haircut had been agreed it seems unlikely the sums offered are anywhere near enough to turn Ukraine's economy round. 

It seems only capital controls are preventing the Ukrainian currency’s complete crash, and without a political breakthrough leading to an end the war there must be a question over how long the situation can hold.

In the short term this unsatisfactory agreement must however increase the possibility that Ukraine will look for some way to default on the $3 billion eurobond it owes Russia, which matures in December.

The Russians have categorically ruled out any restructuring of this debt, a position they have just reiterated.  

Given the financial pressure they are under following an agreement that fails to meet their needs, there must now be strong pressure on the Ukrainians to default on this debt, and certain comments made by Yatsenyuk suggest as much.

As I have discussed previously, if Ukraine defaults on this debt bitter legal disputes will follow, with the Russians insisting that it is public debt and the Ukrainians arguing - implausibly - that it is not.  These disputes alone might suffice to derail the whole IMF programme.

Regardless of what happens to this particular debt, Ukraine’s position, following what looks like a deeply unsatisfactory agreement, looks grim. 


From the Financial Times

Ukraine has secured an agreement to avert default and restructure billions of dollars of government debt in a deal that could see international investors write off close to $4bn.

Creditors, including San-Francisco based Franklin Templeton and Brazilian investment bank BTG Pactual, have accepted the proposal for a 20 per cent haircut on $18bn of the embattled country’s bonds as well as delaying debt repayment by four years.

In return they will receive a GDP-linked security that will pay holders a percentage of Ukraine’s economic growth from 2021.

However, questions remain over whether the hard-won deal, which is supported by the International Monetary Fund, will result in solvency for the country, as conflict with pro-Russian separatists imposes a heavier than expected toll on the economy.

“Ukraine could face further liquidity issues when the IMF programme is over so the extension of debt repayments is crucial,” says Vadim Khramov, strategist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

Under the plans agreed by Ukraine and creditors, bond repayments will be extended by four years while coupon payments will be slightly higher than the current 7.2 per cent average at 7.75 per cent. A GDP-linked warrant will be provided from 2021 to 2040 that will pay out up to 40 per cent of the value of annual economic growth above 4 per cent, although total payments will be capped at 1 per cent for the first four years.

The haircut on government bonds could mean immediate debt relief of up to $3.6bn. However holdouts on some bonds are expected by analysts, including Russia’s $3bn bond due to mature in December.

Kiev’s deal to restructure its $72bn government debt burden follows months of negotiations with investors who hold close to $9bn of Ukrainian bonds.

Although the creditor committee of Franklin Templeton, T Rowe Price, BTG Pactual and TCW have agreed to the plans with the Kiev government, other bondholders will need to be persuaded of a deal in order for a majority to agree relief on each bond.

Once the plans are submitted to Ukraine’s parliament, a prospectus will be published in mid-September and bondholders will vote on the restructuring proposal. The timing means that repayment of a $500m bond due on September 23 will be suspended while creditors consider the plans.

In August officials from Kiev, including US-born minister of finance Natalie Jaresko, flew to San Francisco, home city of Franklin Templeton, for emergency meetings as an upsurge of fighting with Russian-backed separatists controlling breakaway eastern regions of Ukraine focused attention on the deal.

Bondholders had rejected Ukraine’s assertion that they must take a 40 per cent upfront loss, arguing that the country’s problems were mutable and that a temporary freeze in debt payments would be a better solution, delaying a final deal until political and economic problems calm.

Relations with private sector creditors had soured since spring as the two sides clashed over the question of whether investors must write down their holdings in order for Ukraine to meet the terms of the IMF’s four-year $17.5bn bailout, designed to take the country’s debt below 71 per cent of GDP by 2020.

Earlier this year Ukraine took the highly unusual step of passing a bill in parliament that allows the government to halt payments on some foreign debts by declaring a moratorium, a term described by one international credit lawyer as “a polite word for default”.

The IMF alluded to the uncertainty in early August when it reiterated that although it expected Ukraine’s debt operation to be completed, it was willing to support the country even if debt discussions failed and a moratorium was imposed.

However, the repercussions of Ukraine defaulting on its debt would have been severe.

Ukrainian bonds, issued under English law, contain cross-default clauses that mean missed payments on one can trigger default on all, allowing bondholders to demand repayment, drag a country into lengthy legal battles and exacerbating existing economic problems.

S&P, the credit rating agency, said that a sovereign default would also worsen already tight liquidity in Ukraine’s banking sector, triggering panic-driven deposit withdrawals.

If Ukraine succeeds in a debt restructuring it could plausibly return to international debt markets within a year, said Yerlan Syzdykov, head of emerging markets debt at Pioneer Investments. The country has said that it plans to come back to the market by 2017.

Market prices for Ukrainian bonds have recovered in recent weeks as hopes rose that the country would avoid default, with a Ukrainian $2.6bn bond due to mature in 2017 trading at 57.4 cents on the dollar ahead of talks, up from 39.5 cents in March.



via Marshall Horn, CFTC Ukraine Reaches Agreement With Creditors - But the Figures Don't Add Up

Marshall Horn - Brave (Miserable) New Normal World

Marshall Horn,

So what’s the real story behind the made in China Black Monday (followed by a Blue Tuesday)?

Shares in the Shanghai/Shenzhen soared a whopping 150 percent in the 12 months up to mid-June. Small investors – almost 80 percent of the market – believed in a never-ending party, and often borrowed heavily to be part of the “get rich is glorious” bonanza.

There had to be a correction. Those shares – which had hit a 7-year peak - were obviously overvalued. Couple it with a mountain of data showing essentially a Chinese economic slowdown, and the result was predictable; Shanghai and Shenzhen lost all their gains so far in 2015 – and engineered a massive global sell-off. Even notorious billionaires lost, well, billions in a flash.  

Welcome to China’s new normal; or our brave (miserable) new normal world.

The crisis of the Neoliberal Disorder

The sharp correction in the Shanghai/Shenzhen is part of the end of a cycle. Goodbye to China relying on investment rates of 45 percent of GDP. And goodbye to China’s unchecked thirst for commodities.

The problem is China’s tweaking of is economic model is directly linked to the persistent coma of the neoliberal disorder, in effect since 2007/2008.  

You don’t need to be Paul Krugman to know the new normal is anemic global trade; a severe crisis in most emerging markets; Europe’s absolute stagnation cum recession; and “factory of the world” China selling less to the rest of the world.    

Meanwhile, the hyper-valued US dollar is strangling US exports; up to 3 percent decline in the first semester alone. Imports also fell by 2.2 percent; and that ties in with the structural corrosion of America’s dwindling middle class spending power.

Everywhere we look, the whole structural landscape screams crisis of the neoliberal disorder. When the Chinese engine of turbo-capitalism faces (relative) trouble that glaringly reveals how the global financial casino enjoys no dynamic support anywhere else.

Over $5 trillion in paper money has been wiped out since Beijing (modestly) devalued the yuan on August 11 – triggering the global sell-off.  

Now the Fed may postpone raising interest rates for the first time in almost a decade until the end of 2015. Still, no one dares to predict a rosy growth scenario, considering an ultra-strong US dollar, a relatively devalued yuan and a steady fall in oil prices. 

No implosion, no panic

Contrary to Western forecasts/wishful thinking, China is not imploding. Credit Suisse has released some quite level headed analysis. Here are the highlights.

“China still has a very healthy current account surplus, its capital account is still partly closed and its major financial institutions are largely state-owned. These factors combined would allow the monetary authority a free hand to create liquidity in the system if it wants to do so.”

What will happen is that “China's structural growth will continue to decelerate in the next few years.”

There won’t be a “credit-crunch triggered hard landing and the financial system/ exchange rate regime could be maintained relatively stable.”

Hoping for Chinese corporate revenue/earnings growth to “bounce back to the level of few years ago is unrealistic.” But, crucially, “the fear of a repeat of the 1997 Asian financial crisis or a 2008 global financial crisis is not warranted.”

And to sum it all up, Credit Suisse recommends…no panic; “Investors [should] focus more on China/HK stocks that have strong micro fundamentals and are less susceptible to Chinese economic growth, but were dragged down by recent market weakness.”

A black hole in Jackson Hole

So, from Beijing’s point of view, everything is (relatively) under control.

Once again; in global terms, this latest casino bubble is not remotely comparable to the Asian financial crisis of 1997/1998. Rather, that’s yet one more intimation of non-stop, recurrent global weakness enshrined as the new normal, coupled with Wall Street’s absolute refusal of strong financial regulation.

The ball now is in the Fed’s court; what to do about the tsunami of foreign money driving the US dollar up, and driving US industry to become totally uncompetitive.

The era of central banks printing electronic cash in a QE free-for-all – cheap money directly boosting “market volatility” – may not be over, yet. Let’s see what happens this Thursday, when a symposium of central bankers in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, will be examining what to do about “market volatility”.

Central banks absolutely love to drive up stock market prices for the benefit of the 0.0001 percent. So expect more delusion ahead. But be sure everything that’s solid melts into air. Including the neoliberal dream.



via Marshall Horn, CFTC Brave (Miserable) New Normal World